Forecast Amazon unit sales
with more confidenceA free Excel-based forecasting app for brands and agencies that need a practical, math-driven view of Amazon unit demand.
18–25 mos.
historical units + ad spend
4 charts
plus year-in-view tables
5 min
quick-start setup
95% CI
confidence bands included
Proof it works
How brands use it in the real world
See how brands and agencies use the model to make better inventory, planning, and budget decisions.
Locking in Q4 inventory commitments
A brand finalizing FBA purchase orders 90 days out loaded 21 months of historical unit sales and ad spend into the model. The forecast gave them a grounded monthly order target for peak season. They entered October right-sized, avoided a stockout, and sidestepped the post-holiday storage fee spike they had dealt with the year before.
YoY units, zero stockouts
Catching a stockout before it happens
A consumables brand replenishing off prior-year velocity was leaving growth on the table. After running the forecast, they saw Q2 units projected to outpace the prior year by more than 20%. They increased their inbound order before the lead-time window closed.
reactive budget cut
Knowing when a miss is actually a miss
A brand's August units came in below internal plan. Before cutting budget, they ran the forecast and found the result still fell within the model's expected range. The dip was seasonal, not structural. Instead of reacting with a spend cut, the team held course and saw the September rebound the model had already projected.
annual plan built on data
Building a top-down annual unit plan
A brand building its annual operating plan needed a unit baseline before setting ad budgets. They used the model's regression output as the foundation for a top-down forecast, then mapped monthly unit projections to individual ASINs. The result was a budget allocation methodology their finance team could follow and pressure-test.
What you get when you download it
Ready-to-use Excel model
Plug in 18 to 25 months of unit sales and ad spend and generate a forecast in minutes.
Forecast outputs that matter
Forecast curves, coefficients, confidence intervals, and variance views that help surface outliers.
Quick-start guide + sample data
Includes sample data and a quick-start guide so you can get up and running fast. MixShift customers and qualified demo sign-ups can also request a walkthrough on one brand.
Use it to:
- Forecast future unit demand with simple, defensible math
- Translate ad spend into expected unit lift
- Plan inventory buys with clearer visibility into future unit demand
- Explain unit beats and misses with data-backed variance context
Want help applying it to your business?
Book a short consult and we'll walk through the model using your brand's data. If you need more precision, we can also build a custom ASIN-level unit forecast. The free version will get you moving today.
Why we share tools like this
Getting the forecast right is step one.
Understanding why you beat or missed it is step two.
That's why we're building Report Center 2.0 to make reporting smarter and answer the “what changed?” question before you even have to ask it.
If you found this Shift useful, it's a good preview of where we're heading next.